Peak Runoff in the North Caucasus: Recent Trends in Magnitude, Variation and Timing

Abstract—This paper presents the first thorough generalization of the recent change in annual peak runoff magnitude, variation, and timing in the North Caucasus. The patterns of the observed changes in the characteristics of peak runoff in the late XX–early XXI century are rather complicated, but show consistent structures over the territory. The main possible climatic drivers of the revealed changes in the tendencies are discussed, as well as the role of the observed change in the peak runoff in the context of flood danger in the region. The main peak runoff characteristics are re-evaluated for the first time for the whole region of the North Caucasus since the Volume of USSR Surface Water Resources series on this region issued in 1973.