Projecting Changes in Russian Northern River Runoff due to Possible Climate Change during the 21st Century: A Case Study of the Northern Dvina, Taz and Indigirka Rivers

Abstract—Projected changes in river runoff due to possible climate change during the 21st century were simulated with making use of a physically-based land surface model SWAP and meteorological projections simulated by five Global Climate Models (GCMs) for each of four RCP scenarios. The Northern Dvina, Indigirka, and Taz river basins were used in the study. For each basin, 20 projections of changes in climatic river runoff were obtained for three climatic periods of the 21st century. The projected changes in climatic river runoff were analyzed together with the projected changes in climatic precipitation, incoming shortwave and longwave radiation, and evapotranspiration. The obtained hydrological projections were used to estimate their uncertainties resulting from the application of different GCMs and RCP scenarios.