Forecast of Resource Convective Clouds for Weather Modification

Abstract— A technique is presented for monitoring and short-range forecasting of resource convective clouds suitable for obtaining additional precipitation by seeding with hygroscopic reagents. The short-range forecast of resource clouds is based on the analysis of a set of favorable conditions (a system of certain predictors). The predictors are computed with the global GFS model and are visualized as forecast maps. Predictor ratios are established empirically based on the analysis of meteorological conditions in a current season for the study region. The developed technique is tested using the data of convective clouds monitoring in the Stavropol region. The forecast results with a one-day lead time are in satisfactory agreement with the observed parameters of convective clouds.