Russian Meteorology and Hydrology. Vol. 49, No. 3, Pages 183-194, 2023

Yu. D. Resnyanskii^a^,*, A. A. Zelen’ko^a, B. S. Strukov^a, V. N. Stepanov^a, V. M. Khan^{a, b}, V. V. Vorob’eva^{a, b, c}, M. A. Tarasevich^{a, b, d}, A. S. Gritsun^b, and E. M. Volodin^{b, c}

^aHydrometeorological Research Center of the Russian Federation, Moscow, 123242 Russia

^bMarchuk Institute of Numerical Mathematics, Russian Academy of Sciences, Moscow, 119333 Russia

^cObukhov Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Russian Academy of Sciences, Moscow, 119017 Russia

Abstract— Skill scores of the reproducibility of oceanographic fields in applying the INM-CM5 climate model to long-term forecasting for several months are presented. It is shown that disagreements between the model forecasts and the control data in terms of their absolute values are mainly due to the model climate bias. A degree of consistency with the control data significantly increases when comparing anomalies counted from the individual normals of each of the compared data types. In particular, the forecasts of SST anomalies for the Niño-3.4 region with a lead time up to six months appear to be quite successful.

Keywords: INM-CM5 climate model, long-range forecasting, model climate, climate bias, anomalies, El Niño

Assessment of the Reproducibility of Oceanographic Fields in Retrospective Forecasts Using the INM-CM5 Earth System Model