Forecasting Ice Jam Peak Levels of the Sukhona River near Veliky Ustyug

Abstract— The paper presents the analysis, modeling, and forecasting of the time series of the ice jam peak water level of the Sukhona River near Veliky Ustyug, taking into account the predictors selected by the multiple regression technique. A methodology based on the multiple regression that uses the results of modeling by the method developed by V.A. Buzin as a separate predictor is proposed. This approach has improved the forecast skill and forecast results. The observed and predicted values are significantly correlated.