Experience of Applying the Ice Sheet Model for Predicting Ice Formation Dates in Modern Information Environment: A Case Study for Rivers of Northeastern Siberia

Abstract— The ice sheet model developed by L.G. Shulyakovskii for calculating ice formation dates on water bodies is presented. A possibility of applying this model for predicting ice formation dates based on the information system of the Hydrometcenter of Russia is shown. The model is implemented in the Automated Operational Data Processing System for the large navigable rivers of northeastern Siberia. Forecast sites at which the morphometric parameters of the model were obtained from long-term observations are distinguished on these rivers. The analysis of the state of the information databases used to automate calculations revealed a possibility to increase the lead time of the forecasts of the ice phenomena onset up to 10 days. The verification of the floating ice formation date forecasts produced using the model in operational mode over 2014–2022 is performed.