Applicability of Simulated Precipitation for the Rainfall Flood Forecasting in the Amur Basin

Abstract— The studies of the applicability of simulated precipitation in hydrological calculations and forecasts are presented on the example of the Amur basin rivers. It is shown that the use of simulated precipitation has a positive effect on forecasting rainfall floods in case of a sparse observational network. There is an especially noticeable lack of hydrological and precipitation data on the catchments of the Amur right-bank tributaries located in China (the Songhua River and its tributaries), whose runoff is a significant contributor to the water balance of the Middle and Lower Amur. It is revealed that the catchment-averaged fluctuations in simulated 5-day total precipitation above and below a certain threshold are linked to the temporal variations in water levels at the outlets of the Amur partial catchments.