On the System Approach in the Problem
of Forecasting the Earthquakes

I. G. Kissin

Schmidt Institute of Physics of the Earth, Russian Academy of Sciences, ul. Bol’shaya Gruzinskaya 10, Moscow, 123995
Russia

Received May 14, 2012; in final form, November 7, 2012

Abstract—The studies on forecasting earthquakes, which reached their greatest development in the last quarter
of the past century, have not solved this problem. The present paper sheds light on this. It is concluded that the
philosophy of investigations should be profoundly reconceived, and a systematic approach, which is extensively
used for solving complex multicomponent problems, should be applied. If applied to earthquake prediction, it
could reveal the weak points of the analysis and determine the necessary volume of observations; it would allow
geophysicists to pass from poorly substantiated attempts at forecasting to the systematic study of all aspects of
the problem which would provide the basis for the forecast. The current state of the problem and its composing
subsystems, the geophysical environment and its stress-strain state, are discussed. The questions that have not
been previously given due attention, namely, the relationship between the earthquakes and the paths of fluid
migration, the reliability of precursors, and the factors responsible for the lack of their correspondence to the
parameters of seismic rupture are analyzed. It is concluded that the current networks of seismic and other geo-
physical observations are incapable of recording the premonitory signs of an impending earthquake and pro-
viding the basis for forecasting large earthquakes.

DOI: 10.1134/S1069351313040058

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