G. V. Gruza and E. Ya. Ran’kova
Institute of Global Climate and Ecology, Glebovskaya ul. 20b, Moscow, 107532 Russia
Received February 3, 1999
Abstract—The climate response of surface air temperature to changes in the atmospheric greenhouse gas con-
centration was estimated from observed data. The response of decadal averages of annual mean surface air tem-
perature was analyzed within 50°–55° N over Russia from observed data and model outputs (produced by the
global ocean–atmosphere climate model HadCM2 of the Hadley Center of the UK Meteorological Office). The
spatial distributions of climate responses were found to be geometrically similar for various levels of changing
carbon dioxide concentration. The climate response turned out to be roughly proportional to the difference
between greenhouse concentrations. A comparison of the observed and simulated climate responses showed
that they are somewhat similar, but have substantial differences. Unlike the simulated climate response, the
observed one is more intense and the signals corresponding to different changes in the greenhouse gas concen-
tration exhibit more similar patterns, with a smaller spread between different estimated signals. A spatial dis-
tribution of estimated climate response over the territory of Russia is given.
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