Statistical Characteristics of Tropical-Cyclone Parameters
and the Risk Assessment Problem

G. S. Golitsyn*, V. F. Pisarenko**, M. V. Rodkin***, and M. I. Yaroshevich****

* Oboukhov Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Russian Academy of Sciences, Pyzhevskii per. 3, Moscow, 109017 Russia

** International Institute of Earthquake Prediction Theory and Mathematical Geophysics, Russian Academy of Sciences,
Varshavskoe sh. 79-2, Moscow, 113556 Russia

*** Geophysical Center, Russian Academy of Sciences, Molodezhnaya ul. 3, Moscow, 117296 Russia

**** Taifun Research and Production Association, pr. Lenina 82, Obninsk, Kaluga oblast, 249020 Russia

Received January 5, 1999

Abstract—A statistical method for long-term cyclone risk assessment is proposed. A technique for estimating
the exceedance probabilities of the maximum wind speed V_max(T) at a given point over a time period T is devel-
oped. The technique is based on the well-known relation between the wind speed V(R) and the distance R from
the typhoon center to a given point: V(R) = V_max, where R R_max and R_max is the radius of the
typhoon’s central part where a maximum wind speed at a given time is observed. The risk assessment method
is applied to a catalog of typhoons occurring in the western Pacific during the period 1950–1988. The catalog
lists 1013 events and provides maximum wind speeds every 12 hours. The maximum wind speeds exceeded
over the time intervals T = 1, 2, 5, 10, and 20 years with probabilities of 0.5, 0.9, 0.95, and 0.99 are calculated
for Vladivostok and Hong Kong. The method can be useful for designers, builders, insurance companies, and
local authorities in regions subject to typhoons.

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