V. A. Frol’kis, A. A. Kiselev, and I. L. Karol’
Voeikov Main Geophysical Observatory, ul. Karbysheva 7, St. Petersburg, 194018 Russia
Received August 18, 1998; in final form, November 25, 1998
Abstract—Changes in the radiative atmospheric conditions due to anthropogenic pollution are simulated math-
ematically. This simulation is used to describe the effect of anthropogenic and natural trace gases on the climate
system in the past, as well as to estimate the influence of pollution on the radiative conditions in the future. A
new scheme for radiative forcing computations is proposed and compared with the conventional scheme. Radi-
ative forcing and the radiative contribution to global warming are examined depending on observed and pre-
dicted emissions of basic trace gases. Various scenarios of anthropogenic pollutant emissions and individual
gaseous pollutants are estimated as sources of influence on radiative forcing and global warming.
Pleiades Publishing home page | journal home page | top
If you have any problems with this server, contact webmaster.