The Komandor Seismic Gap: Earthquake Prediction
and Tsunami Computation

L. I. Lobkovsky^a, B. V. Baranov^a, K. A. Dozorova^a, R. Kh. Mazova^b,
B. A. Kisel’man^b, and N. A. Baranova^b

^a Shirshov Institute of Oceanology, Russian Academy of Sciences, Moscow, Russia

^b Nizhni Novgorod State Technical University, Nizhni Novgorod, Russia

Received November 12, 2012; in final form June 17, 2013

Abstract—The “seismic silence” period in the seismic gap in the region of the Komandor Islands (hereinafter,
the Komandor seismic gap) is close to the duration of the maximal recurrence interval for the strongest earth-
quakes of the Aleutian Islands. This indicates the possibility of a strong earthquake occurring here in the nearest
time. In the present work, the results of simulation for a tsunami from such an earthquake are presented. The
scheme successfully used by the authors for the nearest analog—the 2004 Sumatra-Andaman earthquake—is
applied. The magnitude of the supposed earthquake is assumed to be 9.0; the tsunamigenic source is about 650
km long and consists of 9 blocks. The parameters of the tsunami propagation in the Pacific Ocean and the char-
acteristics of the waves on the coasts are computed for several possible scenarios of blocks' motion. The spectral
analysis of the obtained wave characteristics is made and the effects of the wave front interference are found.
Simulation has shown that the wave heights at some coastal sites can reach 9 m and, thus, may cause consider-
able destruction and deaths.

DOI: 10.1134/S0001437014030072

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