Tsunamis in the Central Part of the Caspian Sea

E. A. Kulikov, I. P. Kuzin, and O. I. Yakovenko

Shirshov Institute of Oceanology, Russian Academy of Sciences, Moscow, Russia

e-mail: kulikove@ocean.ru

Received October 15, 2012; in final form, March 6, 2013

Abstract—This paper describes the geotectonics of the Caspian Sea basin and the seismicity of its central part.
The seismicity analysis enables us to identify the most probable zones of tsunami generation. We also present
a brief review of the historical records of tsunamis in the Caspian Sea. In order to estimate the tsunami risk, we
used the method of numerical hydrodynamic simulation while taking into account the real topography of the
Caspian Sea. The computation of the wave field for the possible tsunamis occurring in the central part of the
Caspian Sea allowed us to estimate the maximum expected heights of the waves along the coast of the CIS
countries (Russia, Azerbaijan, Kazakhstan, and Turkmenistan). On the basis of the earthquake statistics in the
region and the results of numerical experiments, we show that the extreme wave heights can reach 10 m at cer-
tain parts of the coast. Such extreme events correspond to extended (up to 200 km) seismic sources with M_S ~
8 and a recurrence period of T 1600 years. The tsunami wave heights are expected to be as high as 3 m for
sources of lesser extent (<50 km) with earthquake magnitudes of M_S ~ 7 and a recurrence period of 200 years.

10.1134/S0001437014030060

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