E. G. Kolomyts
Institute of Ecology of the Volga Basin, Russian Academy of Sciences,
ul. Komzina 10, Tolyatti, 445003 Russia;
e-mail: egk2000@mail.ru
Received April 3, 2008
Abstract—Prediction based on one of the latest extreme prognostic models, the Hadley Centre Model
HadCM3 (version A2) has been performed using an original method of discrete empirical statistical modeling
of ecosystems. Probabilistic scenarios of the expected changes in summer soil moisture content until the mid-
22nd century and corresponding structural and functional changes in forest ecosystems for different
zonal/regional conditions of the Volga basin are described.
DOI: 10.1134/S1067413609010020
Key words: ecosystem, biogeocenosis, climatic changes, empirical statistical modeling, landscape–ecological
prediction.
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